- New FOI requests reveal data for proportion of pupils rather than proportion of entries
- A-C grades in National 5 maths down to 39.5%
- Passes in all sciences continue substantial decade-long fall
- Former Headteacher Carole Ford: Data is “deeply concerning”
The Commission on School Reform, the education arm of the independent think tank Enlighten, today releases its second annual Freedom of Information research, which shows the ‘real’ pass rates for National 5 exams in Scotland.
The Broken Stem data analyses the SQA examination data based on the number of pupils in the cohort, rather than the number which sit the examination.
For example, if 100 pupils sit National 5 Maths and 90 pass, the Scottish Government would consider this to be a pass rate of 90%. However, if the total number of pupils was actually 200, and only 100 sit the exam, the overall proportion of the cohort gaining the qualification is only 45%, which looks far less positive.
The Commission’s research has revealed the ‘real’ data, which in the STEM subjects shows (for 2025) the A-C pass rates for Nat5 are:
- 39.5% in mathematics
- 25.5% in biology
- 22.2% in chemistry
- 17.8% in physics
- 9.8% in computing science
This represents a fall in all cases since the last pre-Covid year (2019), except computing science which is static.
The full paper, with data tables going back to 2015, can be read here.
Commenting, Carole Ford, former Headteacher of Kilmarnock Academy, former Principal Teacher of Maths, and member of the Commission on School Reform, said:
“This is deeply concerning data.
“We are used to hearing from the authorities that attainment is rising and rising, but this is real and full data which presents a contrary picture in STEM subjects.
“We have known for some time, thanks to PISA data, that we have declining outcomes in maths and science, and this FOI data shows that the mountain we have to climb only gets higher.
“We are in real danger, in Scotland, of using highly selective data to sweep the realities of school performance under the carpet. We must stop, now.”
Professor Lindsay Paterson, professor emeritus of education policy in the School of Social and Political Science at the University of Edinburgh, and member of the Commission on School Reform, added:
“In the internationally respected PISA tests, Scottish attainment fell from early in the century to the middle of the first decade, stabilised for a few years, and then, from 2012, started a steady decline which was unmitigated except for a brief rise in reading in 2018 (which was wiped out by the 2022 fall).
“As a result, over the whole decade from 2012 to 2022, the Scottish decline was equivalent to about 16 months of schooling in mathematics, 8 months in reading, and 18 months in science.
“In all these tests of science and mathematics, Scotland was far behind the democracies of east Asia – notably Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. These countries have achieved their economic success through science and technology, which rest on the very high achievements of their students in these fields. Scotland ought to be emulating them.
“This annual FOI data on ‘real’ pass rates is now an important addition to the currently disgraceful data landscape. I reiterate the Commission’s call for an Office for School Education Data to oversee a new data programme, answerable to Parliament and independent of government.”
In December 2023 the latest PISA results were published, highlighting worrying declines in Scotland’s maths and science scores.
For maths the score in 2022 was 471, just below the OECD average of 472 and down from 489 in 2018, 491 in 2015 and 498 in 2012. It was ahead of Wales (466), but behind Northern Ireland (475) and England (492).
In science, Scotland’s score was 483, down from 490 in 2018, 497 in 2015 and 513 in 2012. Again this was better than Wales (473) but behind Northern Ireland (488) and England (503). The decline could not be explained away by the pandemic, not least because it carried on a trend of decline that began before Covid.
ENDS
NOTES TO EDITORS
- The report – Broken STEM – can be read here.
- Professor Paterson’s recent blog article for Enlighten highlighting misleading the problems with educational data can be read here.
- The Commission on School Reform is the education arm of Enlighten. Its full membership can be seen on page 2 of the report.
- Enlighten is a public policy institute which works to promote increased economic prosperity, opportunity for all, and more effective public services. Enlighten is independent of political parties and any other organisations. It is funded by donations from private individuals, charitable trusts and corporate organisations. Its Director is Chris Deerin and Alison Payne is the Research Director. Both work closely with the Trustee Board, chaired by Lord McConnell, which meets regularly to review the research and policy programme.
For Enlighten media contact Andy Maciver, [email protected], 07855 261 244